Match Analysis

Central Coast Mariners vs Newcastle Jets

AUS A-League · Win Probability, xG & H2H

Win Probability

43%
28%
29%
Central Coast Mariners winDrawNewcastle Jets win

Key Stats

0.00Points per game1.20
0.00Avg goals scored1.00
0.00Avg goals conceded1.00
0–0–0Record (W–D–L)1–3–1

Score Forecast

Poisson model

1.2

Central Coast Mariners xG

Expected goals

1

Newcastle Jets xG

44%

Both Teams to Score

38%

Over 2.5 Goals

Most likely scores

10

13%

11

13%

00

11%

01

11%

20

8%

21

8%

Home

Central Coast Mariners

No data

Away

Newcastle Jets

Newcastle Jets

LDWDD

PPG

1.20

Avg goals

1.0 / 1.0

Last 5

1W 3D 1L

Head-to-Head · Last 9 meetings

Central Coast Marinersall timeNewcastle Jets
5W
2D
2W
25 Apr 26
Newcastle Jets40Central Coast Mariners
28 Feb 26
Central Coast Mariners00Newcastle Jets
19 Oct 25
Central Coast Mariners32Newcastle Jets
12 Apr 25
Newcastle Jets60Central Coast Mariners
1 Feb 25
Central Coast Mariners22Newcastle Jets
22 Nov 24
Newcastle Jets12Central Coast Mariners
27 Apr 24
Newcastle Jets13Central Coast Mariners
2 Mar 24
Newcastle Jets01Central Coast Mariners
25 Nov 23
Central Coast Mariners31Newcastle Jets

Frequently Asked Questions

Who is favored to win Central Coast Mariners vs Newcastle Jets?

Central Coast Mariners is favored with a 43% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.

What is the H2H record?

In the last 9 A-League meetings, Central Coast Mariners won 5, drew 2, and Newcastle Jets won 2.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely scoreline is 1–0 (13% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 44%. Over 2.5 goals: 38%.

Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · last 5 matches · H2H 9 meetings · home advantage included

Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.

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Match Odds

Central Coast Mariners Win43%
Draw28%
Newcastle Jets Win29%
BTTS44%
Over 2.538%

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Compare model vs Polymarket / Kalshi