Match Analysis

Melbourne Victory vs Melbourne City Fc

AUS A-League · Win Probability, xG & H2H

Win Probability

38%
32%
30%
Melbourne Victory winDrawMelbourne City FC win

Key Stats

1.00Points per game1.80
0.00Avg goals scored1.00
1.00Avg goals conceded1.00
1–2–2Record (W–D–L)3–0–2

Score Forecast

Poisson model

1.2

Melbourne Victory xG

Expected goals

1.1

Melbourne City FC xG

47%

Both Teams to Score

40%

Over 2.5 Goals

Most likely scores

11

13%

10

12%

01

11%

00

10%

21

8%

12

7%

Home

Melbourne Victory

Melbourne Victory

LWDDL

PPG

1.00

Last 5

1W 2D 2L

Away

Melbourne City FC

Melbourne City FC

LLWWW

PPG

1.80

Avg goals

1.0 / 1.0

Last 5

3W 0D 2L

Head-to-Head · Last 10 meetings

Melbourne Victoryall timeMelbourne City Fc
4W
4D
2W
21 Feb 26
Melbourne City FC13Melbourne Victory
20 Dec 25
Melbourne City FC01Melbourne Victory
8 Nov 25
Melbourne Victory02Melbourne City FC
31 May 25
Melbourne City FC10Melbourne Victory
22 Feb 25
Melbourne Victory22Melbourne City FC
21 Dec 24
Melbourne Victory11Melbourne City FC
26 Oct 24
Melbourne City FC13Melbourne Victory
5 May 24
Melbourne Victory11Melbourne City FC
6 Apr 24
Melbourne Victory21Melbourne City FC
17 Feb 24
Melbourne City FC00Melbourne Victory

Frequently Asked Questions

Who is favored to win Melbourne Victory vs Melbourne City Fc?

Melbourne Victory is favored with a 38% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.

What is Melbourne Victory's current form?

Melbourne Victory have recorded 1W 2D 2L in their last 5 matches (1.00 points per game). Expected goals per game: 1.2.

What is the H2H record?

In the last 10 A-League meetings, Melbourne Victory won 4, drew 4, and Melbourne City Fc won 2.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely scoreline is 1–1 (13% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 47%. Over 2.5 goals: 40%.

Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · last 5 matches · H2H 10 meetings · home advantage included

Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.

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Match Odds

Melbourne Victory Win38%
Draw32%
Melbourne City FC Win30%
BTTS47%
Over 2.540%

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