Match Analysis

BahiavsAtlético-MG

BRA Brazilian Série A · Win Probability, xG & H2H

Win Probability

37%
24%
39%
Bahia winDrawAtlético-MG win

Key Stats

1.00Points per game2.00
1.40Avg goals scored1.58
1.37Avg goals conceded1.17
1–2–2Record (W–D–L)3–1–1

Score Forecast

Poisson model

1.5

Bahia xG

Expected goals

1.5

Atlético-MG xG

60%

Both Teams to Score

58%

Over 2.5 Goals

Most likely scores

1–1

11%

1–2

8%

2–1

8%

0–1

7%

1–0

7%

0–2

6%

Home

Bahia

Bahia

DDLWL

PPG

1.00

Avg goals

1.4 / 1.4

Last 5

1W 2D 2L

Away

Atlético-MG

Atlético-MG

DLWWW

PPG

2.00

Avg goals

1.6 / 1.2

Last 5

3W 1D 1L

Head-to-Head

No H2H data found for this league

Frequently Asked Questions

Who is favored to win Bahia vs Atlético-MG?

Atlético-MG is favored with a 39% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.

What is Bahia's current form?

Bahia have recorded 1W 2D 2L in their last 5 matches (1.00 points per game). Expected goals per game: 1.5.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely scoreline is 1–1 (11% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 60%. Over 2.5 goals: 58%.

Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · 16 recent goal samples · form last 5 · limited H2H (0 meetings)

Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.

Match Odds

Bahia Win37%
Draw24%
Atlético-MG Win39%
BTTS60%
Over 2.558%