Match Analysis

BahiavsSão Paulo

BRA Brazilian Série A · Win Probability, xG & H2H

Win Probability

40%
28%
32%
Bahia winDrawSão Paulo win

Key Stats

0.80Points per game1.40
1.17Avg goals scored1.00
1.28Avg goals conceded1.07
1–1–3Record (W–D–L)2–1–2

Score Forecast

Poisson model

1.3

Bahia xG

Expected goals

1.1

São Paulo xG

49%

Both Teams to Score

43%

Over 2.5 Goals

Most likely scores

1–1

13%

1–0

12%

0–1

10%

0–0

9%

2–0

8%

2–1

8%

Home

Bahia

Bahia

DLWLL

PPG

0.80

Avg goals

1.2 / 1.3

Last 5

1W 1D 3L

Away

São Paulo

São Paulo

DWWLL

PPG

1.40

Avg goals

1.0 / 1.1

Last 5

2W 1D 2L

Head-to-Head

No H2H data found for this league

Frequently Asked Questions

Who is favored to win Bahia vs São Paulo?

Bahia is favored with a 40% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.

What is Bahia's current form?

Bahia have recorded 1W 1D 3L in their last 5 matches (0.80 points per game). Expected goals per game: 1.3.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely scoreline is 1–1 (13% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 49%. Over 2.5 goals: 43%.

Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · 15 recent goal samples · form last 5 · limited H2H (0 meetings)

Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.

Match Odds

Bahia Win40%
Draw28%
São Paulo Win32%
BTTS49%
Over 2.543%