Match Analysis

ChapecoensevsFluminense

BRA Brazilian Série A · Win Probability, xG & H2H

Win Probability

26%
22%
52%
Chapecoense winDrawFluminense win

Key Stats

0.40Points per game0.80
1.00Avg goals scored1.60
2.03Avg goals conceded1.37
0–2–3Record (W–D–L)1–1–3

Score Forecast

Poisson model

1.3

Chapecoense xG

Expected goals

2

Fluminense xG

63%

Both Teams to Score

64%

Over 2.5 Goals

Most likely scores

1–1

10%

1–2

10%

0–1

7%

0–2

7%

1–3

6%

2–1

6%

Home

Chapecoense

Chapecoense

DLLLD

PPG

0.40

Avg goals

1.0 / 2.0

Last 5

0W 2D 3L

Away

Fluminense

Fluminense

DWLLL

PPG

0.80

Avg goals

1.6 / 1.4

Last 5

1W 1D 3L

Head-to-Head

No H2H data found for this league

Frequently Asked Questions

Who is favored to win Chapecoense vs Fluminense?

Fluminense is favored with a 52% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.

What is Chapecoense's current form?

Chapecoense have recorded 0W 2D 3L in their last 5 matches (0.40 points per game). Expected goals per game: 1.3.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely scoreline is 1–1 (10% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 63%. Over 2.5 goals: 64%.

Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · 15 recent goal samples · form last 5 · limited H2H (0 meetings)

Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.

Match Odds

Chapecoense Win26%
Draw22%
Fluminense Win52%
BTTS63%
Over 2.564%