Match Analysis

CoritibavsGrêmio

BRA Brazilian Série A · Win Probability, xG & H2H

Win Probability

32%
25%
43%
Coritiba winDrawGrêmio win

Key Stats

0.40Points per game0.80
0.82Avg goals scored1.11
1.93Avg goals conceded1.48
0–2–3Record (W–D–L)0–4–1

Score Forecast

Poisson model

1.3

Coritiba xG

Expected goals

1.5

Grêmio xG

57%

Both Teams to Score

53%

Over 2.5 Goals

Most likely scores

1–1

12%

0–1

9%

1–2

9%

1–0

8%

2–1

8%

0–2

7%

Home

Coritiba

Coritiba

DLDLL

PPG

0.40

Avg goals

0.8 / 1.9

Last 5

0W 2D 3L

Away

Grêmio

Grêmio

DLDDD

PPG

0.80

Avg goals

1.1 / 1.5

Last 5

0W 4D 1L

Head-to-Head

No H2H data found for this league

Frequently Asked Questions

Who is favored to win Coritiba vs Grêmio?

Grêmio is favored with a 43% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.

What is Coritiba's current form?

Coritiba have recorded 0W 2D 3L in their last 5 matches (0.40 points per game). Expected goals per game: 1.3.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely scoreline is 1–1 (12% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%.

Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · 14 recent goal samples · form last 5 · limited H2H (0 meetings)

Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.

Match Odds

Coritiba Win32%
Draw25%
Grêmio Win43%
BTTS57%
Over 2.553%