Match Analysis

GrêmiovsBahia

BRA Brazilian Série A · Win Probability, xG & H2H

Win Probability

36%
25%
39%
Grêmio winDrawBahia win

Key Stats

0.80Points per game1.00
1.11Avg goals scored1.40
1.48Avg goals conceded1.37
0–4–1Record (W–D–L)1–2–2

Score Forecast

Poisson model

1.4

Grêmio xG

Expected goals

1.5

Bahia xG

59%

Both Teams to Score

55%

Over 2.5 Goals

Most likely scores

1–1

12%

1–2

9%

0–1

8%

1–0

8%

2–1

8%

0–0

6%

Home

Grêmio

Grêmio

DLDDD

PPG

0.80

Avg goals

1.1 / 1.5

Last 5

0W 4D 1L

Away

Bahia

Bahia

DDLWL

PPG

1.00

Avg goals

1.4 / 1.4

Last 5

1W 2D 2L

Head-to-Head

No H2H data found for this league

Frequently Asked Questions

Who is favored to win Grêmio vs Bahia?

Bahia is favored with a 39% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.

What is Grêmio's current form?

Grêmio have recorded 0W 4D 1L in their last 5 matches (0.80 points per game). Expected goals per game: 1.4.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely scoreline is 1–1 (12% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 59%. Over 2.5 goals: 55%.

Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · 16 recent goal samples · form last 5 · limited H2H (0 meetings)

Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.

Match Odds

Grêmio Win36%
Draw25%
Bahia Win39%
BTTS59%
Over 2.555%