Win Probability
Key Stats
Score Forecast
Poisson model0.9
Mainz xG
Expected goals
0.4
Bayer Leverkusen xG
20%
Both Teams to Score
14%
Over 2.5 Goals
Most likely scores
0–0
27%
1–0
25%
0–1
11%
2–0
11%
1–1
10%
2–1
4%
Home
Mainz
PPG
2.00
Avg goals
0.5 / 0.4
Last 5
3W 1D 1L
Away
Bayer Leverkusen
PPG
1.40
Avg goals
2.0 / 2.6
Last 5
2W 1D 2L
Head-to-Head · Last 6 meetings
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is favored to win Mainz vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Mainz is favored with a 33% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.
What is Mainz's current form?
Mainz have recorded 3W 1D 1L in their last 5 matches (2.00 points per game). Expected goals per game: 0.9.
What is the H2H record?
In the last 6 Bundesliga meetings, Mainz won 0, drew 2, and Bayer Leverkusen won 4.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely scoreline is 0–0 (27% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 20%. Over 2.5 goals: 14%.
Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · last 5 matches · H2H 6 meetings · home advantage included
Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.
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