Match Analysis

Mainz vs Bayer Leverkusen

GER Bundesliga · Win Probability, xG & H2H

Win Probability

33%
37%
30%
Mainz winDrawBayer Leverkusen win

Key Stats

2.00Points per game1.40
0.53Avg goals scored1.96
0.42Avg goals conceded2.58
3–1–1Record (W–D–L)2–1–2

Score Forecast

Poisson model

0.9

Mainz xG

Expected goals

0.4

Bayer Leverkusen xG

20%

Both Teams to Score

14%

Over 2.5 Goals

Most likely scores

00

27%

10

25%

01

11%

20

11%

11

10%

21

4%

Home

Mainz

Mainz

DWWLW

PPG

2.00

Avg goals

0.5 / 0.4

Last 5

3W 1D 1L

Away

Bayer Leverkusen

Bayer Leverkusen

LWDLW

PPG

1.40

Avg goals

2.0 / 2.6

Last 5

2W 1D 2L

Head-to-Head · Last 6 meetings

Mainzall timeBayer Leverkusen
2D
4W
28 Feb 26
Bayer Leverkusen11Mainz
18 Oct 25
Mainz34Bayer Leverkusen
17 May 25
Mainz22Bayer Leverkusen
14 Jan 25
Bayer Leverkusen10Mainz
23 Feb 24
Bayer Leverkusen21Mainz
30 Sep 23
Mainz03Bayer Leverkusen

Frequently Asked Questions

Who is favored to win Mainz vs Bayer Leverkusen?

Mainz is favored with a 33% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.

What is Mainz's current form?

Mainz have recorded 3W 1D 1L in their last 5 matches (2.00 points per game). Expected goals per game: 0.9.

What is the H2H record?

In the last 6 Bundesliga meetings, Mainz won 0, drew 2, and Bayer Leverkusen won 4.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely scoreline is 0–0 (27% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 20%. Over 2.5 goals: 14%.

Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · last 5 matches · H2H 6 meetings · home advantage included

Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.

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Match Odds

Mainz Win33%
Draw37%
Bayer Leverkusen Win30%
BTTS20%
Over 2.514%

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