Match Analysis

Mainz vs Eintracht Frankfurt

GER Bundesliga · Win Probability, xG & H2H

Win Probability

57%
22%
21%
Mainz winDrawEintracht Frankfurt win

Key Stats

1.80Points per game1.00
1.67Avg goals scored1.70
1.30Avg goals conceded2.33
3–0–2Record (W–D–L)1–2–2

Score Forecast

Poisson model

2.5

Mainz xG

Expected goals

1.2

Eintracht Frankfurt xG

64%

Both Teams to Score

71%

Over 2.5 Goals

Most likely scores

21

9%

20

8%

31

8%

11

7%

10

6%

22

6%

Home

Mainz

Mainz

WWLWL

PPG

1.80

Avg goals

1.7 / 1.3

Last 5

3W 0D 2L

Away

Eintracht Frankfurt

Eintracht Frankfurt

WDLLD

PPG

1.00

Avg goals

1.7 / 2.3

Last 5

1W 2D 2L

Head-to-Head · Last 6 meetings

Mainzall timeEintracht Frankfurt
2W
2D
2W
22 Mar 26
Mainz21Eintracht Frankfurt
9 Nov 25
Eintracht Frankfurt10Mainz
4 May 25
Mainz11Eintracht Frankfurt
21 Dec 24
Eintracht Frankfurt13Mainz
26 Jan 24
Eintracht Frankfurt10Mainz
27 Aug 23
Mainz11Eintracht Frankfurt

Frequently Asked Questions

Who is favored to win Mainz vs Eintracht Frankfurt?

Mainz is favored with a 57% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.

What is Mainz's current form?

Mainz have recorded 3W 0D 2L in their last 5 matches (1.80 points per game). Expected goals per game: 2.5.

What is the H2H record?

In the last 6 Bundesliga meetings, Mainz won 2, drew 2, and Eintracht Frankfurt won 2.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely scoreline is 2–1 (9% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 64%. Over 2.5 goals: 71%.

Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · last 5 matches · H2H 6 meetings · home advantage included

Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.

Your Prediction

Pick a winner

Leaderboard →

Match Odds

Mainz Win57%
Draw22%
Eintracht Frankfurt Win21%
BTTS64%
Over 2.571%

Find prediction markets →

Compare model vs Polymarket / Kalshi