Match Analysis

MainzvsFC Cologne

GER Bundesliga · Win Probability, xG & H2H

Win Probability

49%
22%
29%
Mainz winDrawFC Cologne win

Key Stats

1.40Points per game1.00
2.24Avg goals scored0.94
2.04Avg goals conceded1.28
2–1–2Record (W–D–L)1–2–2

Score Forecast

Poisson model

2

Mainz xG

Expected goals

1.5

FC Cologne xG

67%

Both Teams to Score

68%

Over 2.5 Goals

Most likely scores

1–1

9%

2–1

9%

1–2

7%

2–2

7%

1–0

6%

2–0

6%

Home

Mainz

Mainz

DLWLW

PPG

1.40

Avg goals

2.2 / 2.0

Last 5

2W 1D 2L

Away

FC Cologne

FC Cologne

DDLWL

PPG

1.00

Avg goals

0.9 / 1.3

Last 5

1W 2D 2L

Head-to-Head

No H2H data found for this league

Frequently Asked Questions

Who is favored to win Mainz vs FC Cologne?

Mainz is favored with a 49% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.

What is Mainz's current form?

Mainz have recorded 2W 1D 2L in their last 5 matches (1.40 points per game). Expected goals per game: 2.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely scoreline is 1–1 (9% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 67%. Over 2.5 goals: 68%.

Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · 7 recent goal samples · form last 5 · limited H2H (0 meetings)

Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.

Match Odds

Mainz Win49%
Draw22%
FC Cologne Win29%
BTTS67%
Over 2.568%