Match Analysis

MainzvsSC Freiburg

GER Bundesliga · Win Probability, xG & H2H

Win Probability

43%
20%
37%
Mainz winDrawSC Freiburg win

Key Stats

1.40Points per game0.80
2.24Avg goals scored1.98
2.04Avg goals conceded1.55
2–1–2Record (W–D–L)1–1–3

Score Forecast

Poisson model

2.1

Mainz xG

Expected goals

2

SC Freiburg xG

76%

Both Teams to Score

78%

Over 2.5 Goals

Most likely scores

1–1

7%

1–2

7%

2–1

7%

2–2

7%

1–3

5%

2–3

5%

Home

Mainz

Mainz

DLWLW

PPG

1.40

Avg goals

2.2 / 2.0

Last 5

2W 1D 2L

Away

SC Freiburg

SC Freiburg

DLLLW

PPG

0.80

Avg goals

2.0 / 1.6

Last 5

1W 1D 3L

Head-to-Head

No H2H data found for this league

Frequently Asked Questions

Who is favored to win Mainz vs SC Freiburg?

Mainz is favored with a 43% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.

What is Mainz's current form?

Mainz have recorded 2W 1D 2L in their last 5 matches (1.40 points per game). Expected goals per game: 2.1.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely scoreline is 1–1 (7% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 76%. Over 2.5 goals: 78%.

Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · 7 recent goal samples · form last 5 · limited H2H (0 meetings)

Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.

Match Odds

Mainz Win43%
Draw20%
SC Freiburg Win37%
BTTS76%
Over 2.578%