Win Probability
Key Stats
Score Forecast
Poisson model2
Mainz xG
Expected goals
0.3
Werder Bremen xG
22%
Both Teams to Score
40%
Over 2.5 Goals
Most likely scores
1–0
20%
2–0
20%
3–0
13%
0–0
10%
4–0
7%
1–1
6%
Home
Mainz
PPG
1.80
Avg goals
1.7 / 1.3
Last 5
3W 0D 2L
Away
Werder Bremen
PPG
0.80
Avg goals
0.3 / 2.0
Last 5
1W 1D 3L
Head-to-Head · Last 6 meetings
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is favored to win Mainz vs Werder Bremen?
Mainz is favored with a 63% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.
What is Mainz's current form?
Mainz have recorded 3W 0D 2L in their last 5 matches (1.80 points per game). Expected goals per game: 2.
What is the H2H record?
In the last 6 Bundesliga meetings, Mainz won 1, drew 1, and Werder Bremen won 4.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely scoreline is 1–0 (20% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 22%. Over 2.5 goals: 40%.
Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · last 5 matches · H2H 6 meetings · home advantage included
Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.
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