Match Analysis

Mainz vs Werder Bremen

GER Bundesliga · Win Probability, xG & H2H

Win Probability

63%
17%
20%
Mainz winDrawWerder Bremen win

Key Stats

1.80Points per game0.80
1.66Avg goals scored0.30
1.31Avg goals conceded1.96
3–0–2Record (W–D–L)1–1–3

Score Forecast

Poisson model

2

Mainz xG

Expected goals

0.3

Werder Bremen xG

22%

Both Teams to Score

40%

Over 2.5 Goals

Most likely scores

10

20%

20

20%

30

13%

00

10%

40

7%

11

6%

Home

Mainz

Mainz

WWLWL

PPG

1.80

Avg goals

1.7 / 1.3

Last 5

3W 0D 2L

Away

Werder Bremen

Werder Bremen

WLLLD

PPG

0.80

Avg goals

0.3 / 2.0

Last 5

1W 1D 3L

Head-to-Head · Last 6 meetings

Mainzall timeWerder Bremen
1W
1D
4W
15 Mar 26
Werder Bremen02Mainz
1 Nov 25
Mainz11Werder Bremen
31 Jan 25
Werder Bremen10Mainz
15 Sep 24
Mainz12Werder Bremen
3 Feb 24
Mainz01Werder Bremen
2 Sep 23
Werder Bremen40Mainz

Frequently Asked Questions

Who is favored to win Mainz vs Werder Bremen?

Mainz is favored with a 63% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.

What is Mainz's current form?

Mainz have recorded 3W 0D 2L in their last 5 matches (1.80 points per game). Expected goals per game: 2.

What is the H2H record?

In the last 6 Bundesliga meetings, Mainz won 1, drew 1, and Werder Bremen won 4.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely scoreline is 1–0 (20% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 22%. Over 2.5 goals: 40%.

Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · last 5 matches · H2H 6 meetings · home advantage included

Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.

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Match Odds

Mainz Win63%
Draw17%
Werder Bremen Win20%
BTTS22%
Over 2.540%

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