Match Analysis

MainzvsWerder Bremen

GER Bundesliga · Win Probability, xG & H2H

Win Probability

45%
19%
36%
Mainz winDrawWerder Bremen win

Key Stats

1.40Points per game1.80
2.24Avg goals scored2.24
2.04Avg goals conceded1.97
2–1–2Record (W–D–L)2–3–0

Score Forecast

Poisson model

2.4

Mainz xG

Expected goals

2.1

Werder Bremen xG

80%

Both Teams to Score

83%

Over 2.5 Goals

Most likely scores

2–1

7%

2–2

7%

1–1

6%

1–2

6%

3–2

6%

2–3

5%

Home

Mainz

Mainz

DLWLW

PPG

1.40

Avg goals

2.2 / 2.0

Last 5

2W 1D 2L

Away

Werder Bremen

Werder Bremen

DWDDW

PPG

1.80

Avg goals

2.2 / 2.0

Last 5

2W 3D 0L

Head-to-Head

No H2H data found for this league

Frequently Asked Questions

Who is favored to win Mainz vs Werder Bremen?

Mainz is favored with a 45% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.

What is Mainz's current form?

Mainz have recorded 2W 1D 2L in their last 5 matches (1.40 points per game). Expected goals per game: 2.4.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely scoreline is 2–1 (7% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 80%. Over 2.5 goals: 83%.

Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · 7 recent goal samples · form last 5 · limited H2H (0 meetings)

Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.

Match Odds

Mainz Win45%
Draw19%
Werder Bremen Win36%
BTTS80%
Over 2.583%