Match Analysis

RB LeipzigvsMainz

GER Bundesliga · Win Probability, xG & H2H

Win Probability

56%
18%
26%
RB Leipzig winDrawMainz win

Key Stats

1.40Points per game1.40
3.00Avg goals scored2.24
1.70Avg goals conceded2.04
2–1–2Record (W–D–L)2–1–2

Score Forecast

Poisson model

2.8

RB Leipzig xG

Expected goals

1.9

Mainz xG

80%

Both Teams to Score

85%

Over 2.5 Goals

Most likely scores

2–1

7%

2–2

6%

3–1

6%

3–2

6%

1–1

5%

1–2

5%

Home

RB Leipzig

RB Leipzig

DWLLW

PPG

1.40

Avg goals

3.0 / 1.7

Last 5

2W 1D 2L

Away

Mainz

Mainz

DLWLW

PPG

1.40

Avg goals

2.2 / 2.0

Last 5

2W 1D 2L

Head-to-Head

No H2H data found for this league

Frequently Asked Questions

Who is favored to win RB Leipzig vs Mainz?

RB Leipzig is favored with a 56% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.

What is RB Leipzig's current form?

RB Leipzig have recorded 2W 1D 2L in their last 5 matches (1.40 points per game). Expected goals per game: 2.8.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely scoreline is 2–1 (7% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 80%. Over 2.5 goals: 85%.

Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · 7 recent goal samples · form last 5 · limited H2H (0 meetings)

Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.

Match Odds

RB Leipzig Win56%
Draw18%
Mainz Win26%
BTTS80%
Over 2.585%