Win Probability
Key Stats
Score Forecast
Poisson model1.5
Schalke 04 xG
Expected goals
1.7
Mainz xG
63%
Both Teams to Score
62%
Over 2.5 Goals
Most likely scores
1–1
10%
1–2
9%
2–1
8%
0–1
7%
2–2
7%
0–2
6%
Home
Schalke 04
Away
Mainz
PPG
1.80
Avg goals
1.7 / 1.3
Last 5
3W 0D 2L
Head-to-Head
No H2H data found for this league
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is favored to win Schalke 04 vs Mainz?
Mainz is favored with a 42% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely scoreline is 1–1 (10% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 63%. Over 2.5 goals: 62%.
Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · last 5 matches · limited H2H (0 meetings)
Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.
Your Prediction
Pick a winner
Match Odds
Find prediction markets →
Compare model vs Polymarket / Kalshi
More from Bundesliga