Match Analysis

AS RomavsReal Madrid

UCL Champions League · Win Probability, xG & H2H

Win Probability

44%
19%
37%
AS Roma winDrawReal Madrid win

Key Stats

1.60Points per game2.60
2.99Avg goals scored3.59
1.71Avg goals conceded1.75
2–2–1Record (W–D–L)4–1–0

Score Forecast

Poisson model

2.5

AS Roma xG

Expected goals

2.3

Real Madrid xG

83%

Both Teams to Score

86%

Over 2.5 Goals

Most likely scores

2–2

7%

2–1

6%

3–2

6%

1–1

5%

1–2

5%

2–3

5%

Home

AS Roma

AS Roma

DDWWL

PPG

1.60

Avg goals

3.0 / 1.7

Last 5

2W 2D 1L

Away

Real Madrid

Real Madrid

DWWWW

PPG

2.60

Avg goals

3.6 / 1.7

Last 5

4W 1D 0L

Head-to-Head

No H2H data found for this league

Frequently Asked Questions

Who is favored to win AS Roma vs Real Madrid?

AS Roma is favored with a 44% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.

What is AS Roma's current form?

AS Roma have recorded 2W 2D 1L in their last 5 matches (1.60 points per game). Expected goals per game: 2.5.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely scoreline is 2–2 (7% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 83%. Over 2.5 goals: 86%.

Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · 3 recent goal samples · form last 5 · limited H2H (0 meetings)

Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.

Match Odds

AS Roma Win44%
Draw19%
Real Madrid Win37%
BTTS83%
Over 2.586%