Match Analysis

LensvsManchester City

UCL Champions League · Win Probability, xG & H2H

Win Probability

32%
19%
49%
Lens winDrawManchester City win

Key Stats

1.40Points per game2.00
0.64Avg goals scored3.25
2.42Avg goals conceded1.92
2–1–2Record (W–D–L)3–1–1

Score Forecast

Poisson model

2

Lens xG

Expected goals

2.4

Manchester City xG

79%

Both Teams to Score

81%

Over 2.5 Goals

Most likely scores

1–2

7%

2–2

7%

1–1

6%

1–3

6%

2–1

6%

2–3

6%

Home

Lens

Lens

DLWLW

PPG

1.40

Avg goals

0.6 / 2.4

Last 5

2W 1D 2L

Away

Manchester City

Manchester City

DWWLW

PPG

2.00

Avg goals

3.2 / 1.9

Last 5

3W 1D 1L

Head-to-Head

No H2H data found for this league

Frequently Asked Questions

Who is favored to win Lens vs Manchester City?

Manchester City is favored with a 49% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.

What is Lens's current form?

Lens have recorded 2W 1D 2L in their last 5 matches (1.40 points per game). Expected goals per game: 2.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely scoreline is 1–2 (7% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 79%. Over 2.5 goals: 81%.

Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · 3 recent goal samples · form last 5 · limited H2H (0 meetings)

Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.

Match Odds

Lens Win32%
Draw19%
Manchester City Win49%
BTTS79%
Over 2.581%