⚡ Match Analysis
Paris Saintgermain vs Arsenal
🏆 Champions League · Win Probability, xG & H2H
Win Probability
25%
41%
34%
Paris Saint-Germain winDrawArsenal win
Key Stats
1.60Points per game3.00
2.76Avg goals scored0.93
1.40Avg goals conceded0.32
2–2–1Record (W–D–L)5–0–0
Score Forecast
Poisson model0.5
Paris Saint-Germain xG
Expected goals
0.7
Arsenal xG
20%
Both Teams to Score
12%
Over 2.5 Goals
Most likely scores
0–0
30%
0–1
21%
1–0
15%
1–1
11%
0–2
7%
1–2
4%
Model vs Market
Polymarket · $2.5M volume
Outcome
Our Model
Market
Edge
Paris Saint-Germain
25%
40%
-15%
Draw
41%
—
—
Arsenal
34%
60%
-26%
Trade on Polymarket →
Edge = our model minus market price. Not financial advice.
Home
Paris Saint-Germain
LWWDD
PPG
1.60
Avg goals
2.8 / 1.4
Last 5
2W 2D 1L
Away
Arsenal
WWWWW
PPG
3.00
Avg goals
0.9 / 0.3
Last 5
5W 0D 0L
Head-to-Head
No H2H data found for this league
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is favored to win Paris Saintgermain vs Arsenal?
Arsenal is favored with a 34% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.
What is Paris Saintgermain's current form?
Paris Saintgermain have recorded 2W 2D 1L in their last 5 matches (1.60 points per game). Expected goals per game: 0.5.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely scoreline is 0–0 (30% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 20%. Over 2.5 goals: 12%.
⚡ Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · last 5 matches · limited H2H (0 meetings)
Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.
Match Odds
Paris Saint-Germain Win25%
Draw41%
Arsenal Win34%
BTTS20%
Over 2.512%
Find prediction markets →
Compare model vs Polymarket / Kalshi
More from Champions League