Match Analysis

Ararat-ArmeniavsAZ Alkmaar

UEL Europa League · Win Probability, xG & H2H

Win Probability

21%
20%
59%
Ararat-Armenia winDrawAZ Alkmaar win

Key Stats

1.00Points per game1.60
0.59Avg goals scored2.37
3.64Avg goals conceded0.59
1–2–2Record (W–D–L)2–2–1

Score Forecast

Poisson model

1.3

Ararat-Armenia xG

Expected goals

2.3

AZ Alkmaar xG

65%

Both Teams to Score

70%

Over 2.5 Goals

Most likely scores

1–2

9%

1–1

8%

0–2

7%

1–3

7%

0–1

6%

0–3

6%

Home

Ararat-Armenia

Ararat-Armenia

DLLWD

PPG

1.00

Avg goals

0.6 / 3.6

Last 5

1W 2D 2L

Away

AZ Alkmaar

AZ Alkmaar

DWDWL

PPG

1.60

Avg goals

2.4 / 0.6

Last 5

2W 2D 1L

Head-to-Head

No H2H data found for this league

Frequently Asked Questions

Who is favored to win Ararat-Armenia vs AZ Alkmaar?

AZ Alkmaar is favored with a 59% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.

What is Ararat-Armenia's current form?

Ararat-Armenia have recorded 1W 2D 2L in their last 5 matches (1.00 points per game). Expected goals per game: 1.3.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely scoreline is 1–2 (9% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 65%. Over 2.5 goals: 70%.

Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · 3 recent goal samples · form last 5 · limited H2H (0 meetings)

Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.

Match Odds

Ararat-Armenia Win21%
Draw20%
AZ Alkmaar Win59%
BTTS65%
Over 2.570%