Match Analysis

MexicovsChile

FIFA International Friendly · Win Probability, xG & H2H

Win Probability

34%
25%
41%
Mexico winDrawChile win

Key Stats

0.60Points per game0.80
0.47Avg goals scored1.38
1.79Avg goals conceded1.61
0–3–2Record (W–D–L)1–1–3

Score Forecast

Poisson model

1.3

Mexico xG

Expected goals

1.5

Chile xG

57%

Both Teams to Score

53%

Over 2.5 Goals

Most likely scores

1–1

12%

0–1

9%

1–2

9%

1–0

8%

2–1

8%

0–2

7%

Home

Mexico

Mexico

DLDDL

PPG

0.60

Avg goals

0.5 / 1.8

Last 5

0W 3D 2L

Away

Chile

Chile

DLLWL

PPG

0.80

Avg goals

1.4 / 1.6

Last 5

1W 1D 3L

Head-to-Head

No H2H data found for this league

Frequently Asked Questions

Who is favored to win Mexico vs Chile?

Chile is favored with a 41% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.

What is Mexico's current form?

Mexico have recorded 0W 3D 2L in their last 5 matches (0.60 points per game). Expected goals per game: 1.3.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely scoreline is 1–1 (12% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%.

Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · 4 recent goal samples · form last 5 · limited H2H (0 meetings)

Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.

Match Odds

Mexico Win34%
Draw25%
Chile Win41%
BTTS57%
Over 2.553%