Match Analysis

TunisiavsMali

FIFA International Friendly · Win Probability, xG & H2H

Win Probability

40%
28%
32%
Tunisia winDrawMali win

Key Stats

0.40Points per game1.60
0.00Avg goals scored0.50
0.00Avg goals conceded0.50
0–2–3Record (W–D–L)2–2–1

Score Forecast

Poisson model

1.3

Tunisia xG

Expected goals

1.1

Mali xG

49%

Both Teams to Score

43%

Over 2.5 Goals

Most likely scores

1–1

13%

1–0

12%

0–1

10%

0–0

9%

2–0

8%

2–1

8%

Home

Tunisia

Tunisia

DDLLL

PPG

0.40

Last 5

0W 2D 3L

Away

Mali

Mali

DWWLD

PPG

1.60

Avg goals

0.5 / 0.5

Last 5

2W 2D 1L

Head-to-Head

No H2H data found for this league

Frequently Asked Questions

Who is favored to win Tunisia vs Mali?

Tunisia is favored with a 40% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.

What is Tunisia's current form?

Tunisia have recorded 0W 2D 3L in their last 5 matches (0.40 points per game). Expected goals per game: 1.3.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely scoreline is 1–1 (13% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 49%. Over 2.5 goals: 43%.

Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · 2 recent goal samples · form last 5 · limited H2H (0 meetings)

Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.

Match Odds

Tunisia Win40%
Draw28%
Mali Win32%
BTTS49%
Over 2.543%