Match Analysis

Avispa Fukuoka vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima

JPN J1 League · Win Probability, xG & H2H

Win Probability

13%
23%
64%
Avispa Fukuoka winDrawSanfrecce Hiroshima win

Key Stats

1.20Points per game2.20
1.45Avg goals scored1.85
1.49Avg goals conceded0.55
2–0–3Record (W–D–L)3–2–0

Score Forecast

Poisson model

0.7

Avispa Fukuoka xG

Expected goals

2

Sanfrecce Hiroshima xG

44%

Both Teams to Score

51%

Over 2.5 Goals

Most likely scores

01

13%

02

13%

03

9%

11

9%

12

9%

00

7%

Home

Avispa Fukuoka

Avispa Fukuoka

LLWLW

PPG

1.20

Avg goals

1.5 / 1.5

Last 5

2W 0D 3L

Away

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

DDWWW

PPG

2.20

Avg goals

1.9 / 0.6

Last 5

3W 2D 0L

Head-to-Head · Last 6 meetings

Avispa Fukuokaall timeSanfrecce Hiroshima
1W
2D
3W
29 Apr 26
Avispa Fukuoka22Sanfrecce Hiroshima
5 Apr 26
Sanfrecce Hiroshima01Avispa Fukuoka
27 Sep 25
Avispa Fukuoka12Sanfrecce Hiroshima
3 May 25
Sanfrecce Hiroshima21Avispa Fukuoka
13 Apr 24
Avispa Fukuoka11Sanfrecce Hiroshima
3 Dec 23
Avispa Fukuoka01Sanfrecce Hiroshima

Frequently Asked Questions

Who is favored to win Avispa Fukuoka vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima?

Sanfrecce Hiroshima is favored with a 64% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.

What is Avispa Fukuoka's current form?

Avispa Fukuoka have recorded 2W 0D 3L in their last 5 matches (1.20 points per game). Expected goals per game: 0.7.

What is the H2H record?

In the last 6 J1 League meetings, Avispa Fukuoka won 1, drew 2, and Sanfrecce Hiroshima won 3.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely scoreline is 0–1 (13% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 44%. Over 2.5 goals: 51%.

Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · last 5 matches · H2H 6 meetings · home advantage included

Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.

Your Prediction

Pick a winner

Leaderboard →

Match Odds

Avispa Fukuoka Win13%
Draw23%
Sanfrecce Hiroshima Win64%
BTTS44%
Over 2.551%

Find prediction markets →

Compare model vs Polymarket / Kalshi