Match Analysis

Fc Tokyo vs Nagoya Grampus

JPN J1 League · Win Probability, xG & H2H

Win Probability

49%
21%
30%
FC Tokyo winDrawNagoya Grampus win

Key Stats

1.40Points per game1.20
1.79Avg goals scored1.66
1.52Avg goals conceded1.55
2–1–2Record (W–D–L)2–0–3

Score Forecast

Poisson model

2.3

FC Tokyo xG

Expected goals

1.8

Nagoya Grampus xG

75%

Both Teams to Score

78%

Over 2.5 Goals

Most likely scores

21

8%

11

7%

22

7%

12

6%

31

6%

32

5%

Home

FC Tokyo

FC Tokyo

WWDLL

PPG

1.40

Avg goals

1.8 / 1.5

Last 5

2W 1D 2L

Away

Nagoya Grampus

Nagoya Grampus

WWLLL

PPG

1.20

Avg goals

1.7 / 1.6

Last 5

2W 0D 3L

Head-to-Head · Last 4 meetings

Fc Tokyoall timeNagoya Grampus
2W
1D
1W
31 Aug 25
Nagoya Grampus11FC Tokyo
26 Feb 25
FC Tokyo31Nagoya Grampus
14 Sep 24
FC Tokyo41Nagoya Grampus
15 May 24
Nagoya Grampus31FC Tokyo

Frequently Asked Questions

Who is favored to win Fc Tokyo vs Nagoya Grampus?

FC Tokyo is favored with a 49% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.

What is Fc Tokyo's current form?

Fc Tokyo have recorded 2W 1D 2L in their last 5 matches (1.40 points per game). Expected goals per game: 2.3.

What is the H2H record?

In the last 4 J1 League meetings, Fc Tokyo won 2, drew 1, and Nagoya Grampus won 1.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely scoreline is 2–1 (8% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 75%. Over 2.5 goals: 78%.

Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · last 5 matches · H2H 4 meetings · home advantage included

Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.

Your Prediction

Pick a winner

Leaderboard →

Match Odds

FC Tokyo Win49%
Draw21%
Nagoya Grampus Win30%
BTTS75%
Over 2.578%

Find prediction markets →

Compare model vs Polymarket / Kalshi