Match Analysis

Gamba Osaka vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima

JPN J1 League · Win Probability, xG & H2H

Win Probability

12%
18%
70%
Gamba Osaka winDrawSanfrecce Hiroshima win

Key Stats

1.60Points per game2.20
1.54Avg goals scored1.85
1.54Avg goals conceded0.55
2–2–1Record (W–D–L)3–2–0

Score Forecast

Poisson model

0.7

Gamba Osaka xG

Expected goals

2

Sanfrecce Hiroshima xG

44%

Both Teams to Score

51%

Over 2.5 Goals

Most likely scores

01

13%

02

13%

03

9%

11

9%

12

9%

00

7%

Home

Gamba Osaka

Gamba Osaka

DLDWW

PPG

1.60

Avg goals

1.5 / 1.5

Last 5

2W 2D 1L

Away

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

DDWWW

PPG

2.20

Avg goals

1.9 / 0.6

Last 5

3W 2D 0L

Head-to-Head · Last 7 meetings

Gamba Osakaall timeSanfrecce Hiroshima
1W
1D
5W
10 May 26
Gamba Osaka01Sanfrecce Hiroshima
14 Mar 26
Sanfrecce Hiroshima20Gamba Osaka
16 Aug 25
Sanfrecce Hiroshima10Gamba Osaka
11 May 25
Gamba Osaka01Sanfrecce Hiroshima
8 Dec 24
Gamba Osaka31Sanfrecce Hiroshima
30 Mar 24
Sanfrecce Hiroshima11Gamba Osaka
25 Nov 23
Sanfrecce Hiroshima30Gamba Osaka

Frequently Asked Questions

Who is favored to win Gamba Osaka vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima?

Sanfrecce Hiroshima is favored with a 70% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.

What is Gamba Osaka's current form?

Gamba Osaka have recorded 2W 2D 1L in their last 5 matches (1.60 points per game). Expected goals per game: 0.7.

What is the H2H record?

In the last 7 J1 League meetings, Gamba Osaka won 1, drew 1, and Sanfrecce Hiroshima won 5.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely scoreline is 0–1 (13% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 44%. Over 2.5 goals: 51%.

Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · last 5 matches · H2H 7 meetings · home advantage included

Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.

Your Prediction

Pick a winner

Leaderboard →

Match Odds

Gamba Osaka Win12%
Draw18%
Sanfrecce Hiroshima Win70%
BTTS44%
Over 2.551%

Find prediction markets →

Compare model vs Polymarket / Kalshi