⚡ Match Analysis
Machida Zelvia vs Nagoya Grampus
🇯🇵 J1 League · Win Probability, xG & H2H
Win Probability
67%
17%
16%
Machida Zelvia winDrawNagoya Grampus win
Key Stats
2.40Points per game1.80
1.17Avg goals scored1.83
0.80Avg goals conceded1.87
4–0–1Record (W–D–L)3–0–2
Score Forecast
Poisson model1.9
Machida Zelvia xG
Expected goals
1.1
Nagoya Grampus xG
57%
Both Teams to Score
58%
Over 2.5 Goals
Most likely scores
1–1
10%
2–1
10%
1–0
9%
2–0
9%
1–2
6%
3–0
6%
Home
Machida Zelvia
WLWWW
PPG
2.40
Avg goals
1.2 / 0.8
Last 5
4W 0D 1L
Away
Nagoya Grampus
LLWWW
PPG
1.80
Avg goals
1.8 / 1.9
Last 5
3W 0D 2L
Head-to-Head · Last 3 meetings
Machida Zelviaall timeNagoya Grampus
3W
30 Nov 25
Machida Zelvia3–1Nagoya Grampus
2 Mar 25
Nagoya Grampus1–2Machida Zelvia
2 Mar 24
Nagoya Grampus0–1Machida Zelvia
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is favored to win Machida Zelvia vs Nagoya Grampus?
Machida Zelvia is favored with a 67% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.
What is Machida Zelvia's current form?
Machida Zelvia have recorded 4W 0D 1L in their last 5 matches (2.40 points per game). Expected goals per game: 1.9.
What is the H2H record?
In the last 3 J1 League meetings, Machida Zelvia won 3, drew 0, and Nagoya Grampus won 0.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely scoreline is 1–1 (10% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 58%.
⚡ Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · last 5 matches · H2H 3 meetings · home advantage included
Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.
Match Odds
Machida Zelvia Win67%
Draw17%
Nagoya Grampus Win16%
BTTS57%
Over 2.558%
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Compare model vs Polymarket / Kalshi
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