Match Analysis

Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Nagoya Grampus

JPN J1 League · Win Probability, xG & H2H

Win Probability

69%
12%
19%
Sanfrecce Hiroshima winDrawNagoya Grampus win

Key Stats

2.20Points per game1.20
1.85Avg goals scored1.66
0.55Avg goals conceded1.55
3–2–0Record (W–D–L)2–0–3

Score Forecast

Poisson model

2.3

Sanfrecce Hiroshima xG

Expected goals

0.7

Nagoya Grampus xG

45%

Both Teams to Score

58%

Over 2.5 Goals

Most likely scores

20

13%

10

11%

30

10%

21

9%

11

8%

31

7%

Home

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

DDWWW

PPG

2.20

Avg goals

1.9 / 0.6

Last 5

3W 2D 0L

Away

Nagoya Grampus

Nagoya Grampus

WWLLL

PPG

1.20

Avg goals

1.7 / 1.6

Last 5

2W 0D 3L

Head-to-Head · Last 6 meetings

Sanfrecce Hiroshimaall timeNagoya Grampus
3W
3W
23 May 26
Sanfrecce Hiroshima42Nagoya Grampus
18 Mar 26
Nagoya Grampus21Sanfrecce Hiroshima
20 Apr 25
Nagoya Grampus21Sanfrecce Hiroshima
17 Aug 24
Nagoya Grampus12Sanfrecce Hiroshima
6 May 24
Sanfrecce Hiroshima23Nagoya Grampus
30 Sep 23
Sanfrecce Hiroshima31Nagoya Grampus

Frequently Asked Questions

Who is favored to win Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Nagoya Grampus?

Sanfrecce Hiroshima is favored with a 69% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.

What is Sanfrecce Hiroshima's current form?

Sanfrecce Hiroshima have recorded 3W 2D 0L in their last 5 matches (2.20 points per game). Expected goals per game: 2.3.

What is the H2H record?

In the last 6 J1 League meetings, Sanfrecce Hiroshima won 3, drew 0, and Nagoya Grampus won 3.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely scoreline is 2–0 (13% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 45%. Over 2.5 goals: 58%.

Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · last 5 matches · H2H 6 meetings · home advantage included

Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.

Your Prediction

Pick a winner

Leaderboard →

Match Odds

Sanfrecce Hiroshima Win69%
Draw12%
Nagoya Grampus Win19%
BTTS45%
Over 2.558%

Find prediction markets →

Compare model vs Polymarket / Kalshi