Match Analysis

AlavésvsAtlético Madrid

ESP La Liga · Win Probability, xG & H2H

Win Probability

28%
25%
47%
Alavés winDrawAtlético Madrid win

Key Stats

0.40Points per game2.20
1.23Avg goals scored1.86
1.24Avg goals conceded0.65
0–2–3Record (W–D–L)3–2–0

Score Forecast

Poisson model

1.1

Alavés xG

Expected goals

1.5

Atlético Madrid xG

52%

Both Teams to Score

48%

Over 2.5 Goals

Most likely scores

1–1

12%

0–1

11%

1–2

9%

0–2

8%

1–0

8%

0–0

7%

Home

Alavés

Alavés

DLLDL

PPG

0.40

Avg goals

1.2 / 1.2

Last 5

0W 2D 3L

Away

Atlético Madrid

Atlético Madrid

DDWWW

PPG

2.20

Avg goals

1.9 / 0.7

Last 5

3W 2D 0L

Head-to-Head

No H2H data found for this league

Frequently Asked Questions

Who is favored to win Alavés vs Atlético Madrid?

Atlético Madrid is favored with a 47% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.

What is Alavés's current form?

Alavés have recorded 0W 2D 3L in their last 5 matches (0.40 points per game). Expected goals per game: 1.1.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely scoreline is 1–1 (12% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 48%.

Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · 10 recent goal samples · form last 5 · limited H2H (0 meetings)

Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.

Match Odds

Alavés Win28%
Draw25%
Atlético Madrid Win47%
BTTS52%
Over 2.548%