Win Probability
Key Stats
Score Forecast
Poisson model1.3
Athletic Club xG
Expected goals
1.5
Real Madrid xG
57%
Both Teams to Score
53%
Over 2.5 Goals
Most likely scores
1–1
12%
0–1
9%
1–2
9%
1–0
8%
2–1
8%
0–2
7%
Model vs Market
Polymarket · $1.0M volume
Edge = our model minus market price. Not financial advice.
Home
Athletic Club
PPG
0.80
Avg goals
1.3 / 0.8
Last 5
0W 4D 1L
Away
Real Madrid
PPG
2.60
Avg goals
2.5 / 1.0
Last 5
4W 1D 0L
Head-to-Head
No H2H data found for this league
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is favored to win Athletic Club vs Real Madrid?
Real Madrid is favored with a 42% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.
What is Athletic Club's current form?
Athletic Club have recorded 0W 4D 1L in their last 5 matches (0.80 points per game). Expected goals per game: 1.3.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely scoreline is 1–1 (12% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%.
Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · 10 recent goal samples · form last 5 · limited H2H (0 meetings)
Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.
Match Odds
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