Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid
ESP La Liga · Win Probability, xG & H2H
Win Probability
Key Stats
Score Forecast
Poisson model1.1
Atletico Madrid xG
Expected goals
2.7
Real Madrid xG
62%
Both Teams to Score
73%
Over 2.5 Goals
Most likely scores
1–2
9%
0–2
8%
1–3
8%
0–3
7%
1–1
7%
0–1
6%
Model vs Market
Polymarket · $147K volume
Edge = our model minus market price. Not financial advice.
Home
Atletico Madrid
Away
Real Madrid
PPG
3.00
Avg goals
2.7 / 1.0
Last 5
5W 0D 0L
Head-to-Head
No H2H data found for this league
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is favored to win Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid?
Real Madrid is favored with a 71% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely scoreline is 1–2 (9% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 62%. Over 2.5 goals: 73%.
Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · last 5 matches · limited H2H (0 meetings)
Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.
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