Win Probability
Key Stats
Score Forecast
Poisson model2.5
Barcelona xG
Expected goals
1.8
Real Madrid xG
77%
Both Teams to Score
80%
Over 2.5 Goals
Most likely scores
2–1
8%
2–2
7%
1–1
6%
3–1
6%
3–2
6%
1–2
5%
Home
Barcelona
PPG
2.00
Avg goals
3.8 / 1.2
Last 5
3W 1D 1L
Away
Real Madrid
PPG
2.60
Avg goals
2.5 / 1.0
Last 5
4W 1D 0L
Head-to-Head
No H2H data found for this league
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is favored to win Barcelona vs Real Madrid?
Barcelona is favored with a 53% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.
What is Barcelona's current form?
Barcelona have recorded 3W 1D 1L in their last 5 matches (2.00 points per game). Expected goals per game: 2.5.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely scoreline is 2–1 (8% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 77%. Over 2.5 goals: 80%.
Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · 10 recent goal samples · form last 5 · limited H2H (0 meetings)
Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.
Match Odds
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