Win Probability
Key Stats
Score Forecast
Poisson model2.4
Barcelona xG
Expected goals
0.8
Real Madrid xG
50%
Both Teams to Score
62%
Over 2.5 Goals
Most likely scores
2–0
12%
1–0
10%
2–1
9%
3–0
9%
1–1
8%
3–1
8%
Model vs Market
Polymarket · $176K volume
Edge = our model minus market price. Not financial advice.
Home
Barcelona
PPG
2.40
Avg goals
2.9 / 0.4
Last 5
4W 0D 1L
Away
Real Madrid
PPG
3.00
Avg goals
2.7 / 1.0
Last 5
5W 0D 0L
Head-to-Head · Last 6 meetings
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is favored to win Barcelona vs Real Madrid?
Barcelona is favored with a 67% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.
What is Barcelona's current form?
Barcelona have recorded 4W 0D 1L in their last 5 matches (2.40 points per game). Expected goals per game: 2.4.
What is the H2H record?
In the last 6 La Liga meetings, Barcelona won 3, drew 0, and Real Madrid won 3.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely scoreline is 2–0 (12% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 62%.
Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · last 5 matches · H2H 6 meetings · home advantage included
Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.
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