Win Probability
Key Stats
Score Forecast
Poisson model0.5
Elche xG
Expected goals
4
Real Madrid xG
39%
Both Teams to Score
83%
Over 2.5 Goals
Most likely scores
0–3
12%
0–4
12%
0–2
9%
0–5
9%
1–3
6%
1–4
6%
Model vs Market
Polymarket · $2.3M volume
Edge = our model minus market price. Not financial advice.
Home
Elche
PPG
1.00
Avg goals
0.6 / 2.5
Last 5
1W 2D 2L
Away
Real Madrid
PPG
3.00
Avg goals
2.7 / 1.0
Last 5
5W 0D 0L
Head-to-Head · Last 2 meetings
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is favored to win Elche vs Real Madrid?
Real Madrid is favored with a 83% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.
What is Elche's current form?
Elche have recorded 1W 2D 2L in their last 5 matches (1.00 points per game). Expected goals per game: 0.5.
What is the H2H record?
In the last 2 La Liga meetings, Elche won 0, drew 1, and Real Madrid won 1.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely scoreline is 0–3 (12% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 39%. Over 2.5 goals: 83%.
Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · last 5 matches · limited H2H (2 meetings)
Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.
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