Win Probability
Key Stats
Score Forecast
Poisson model0.7
Real Sociedad xG
Expected goals
1.5
Celta Vigo xG
39%
Both Teams to Score
38%
Over 2.5 Goals
Most likely scores
0–1
17%
0–2
12%
1–1
12%
0–0
11%
1–2
9%
1–0
8%
Home
Real Sociedad
PPG
0.40
Avg goals
0.8 / 2.3
Last 5
0W 2D 3L
Away
Celta Vigo
PPG
1.00
Avg goals
0.8 / 1.0
Last 5
1W 2D 2L
Head-to-Head · Last 6 meetings
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is favored to win Real Sociedad vs Celta Vigo?
Celta Vigo is favored with a 50% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.
What is Real Sociedad's current form?
Real Sociedad have recorded 0W 2D 3L in their last 5 matches (0.40 points per game). Expected goals per game: 0.7.
What is the H2H record?
In the last 6 La Liga meetings, Real Sociedad won 2, drew 2, and Celta Vigo won 2.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely scoreline is 0–1 (17% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 39%. Over 2.5 goals: 38%.
Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · last 5 matches · H2H 6 meetings · home advantage included
Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.
Your Prediction
Pick a winner
Match Odds
Find prediction markets →
Compare model vs Polymarket / Kalshi
More from La Liga