Match Analysis

Real Sociedad vs Celta Vigo

ESP La Liga · Win Probability, xG & H2H

Win Probability

22%
28%
50%
Real Sociedad winDrawCelta Vigo win

Key Stats

0.40Points per game1.00
0.81Avg goals scored0.83
2.33Avg goals conceded1.02
0–2–3Record (W–D–L)1–2–2

Score Forecast

Poisson model

0.7

Real Sociedad xG

Expected goals

1.5

Celta Vigo xG

39%

Both Teams to Score

38%

Over 2.5 Goals

Most likely scores

01

17%

02

12%

11

12%

00

11%

12

9%

10

8%

Home

Real Sociedad

Real Sociedad

LLDLD

PPG

0.40

Avg goals

0.8 / 2.3

Last 5

0W 2D 3L

Away

Celta Vigo

Celta Vigo

LDWDL

PPG

1.00

Avg goals

0.8 / 1.0

Last 5

1W 2D 2L

Head-to-Head · Last 6 meetings

Real Sociedadall timeCelta Vigo
2W
2D
2W
25 Jan 26
Real Sociedad31Celta Vigo
19 Oct 25
Celta Vigo11Real Sociedad
13 May 25
Real Sociedad01Celta Vigo
21 Dec 24
Celta Vigo20Real Sociedad
20 Jan 24
Celta Vigo01Real Sociedad
19 Aug 23
Real Sociedad11Celta Vigo

Frequently Asked Questions

Who is favored to win Real Sociedad vs Celta Vigo?

Celta Vigo is favored with a 50% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.

What is Real Sociedad's current form?

Real Sociedad have recorded 0W 2D 3L in their last 5 matches (0.40 points per game). Expected goals per game: 0.7.

What is the H2H record?

In the last 6 La Liga meetings, Real Sociedad won 2, drew 2, and Celta Vigo won 2.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely scoreline is 0–1 (17% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 39%. Over 2.5 goals: 38%.

Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · last 5 matches · H2H 6 meetings · home advantage included

Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.

Your Prediction

Pick a winner

Leaderboard →

Match Odds

Real Sociedad Win22%
Draw28%
Celta Vigo Win50%
BTTS39%
Over 2.538%

Find prediction markets →

Compare model vs Polymarket / Kalshi