Win Probability
Key Stats
Score Forecast
Poisson model2.4
Sevilla xG
Expected goals
1
Atletico Madrid xG
57%
Both Teams to Score
66%
Over 2.5 Goals
Most likely scores
2–0
10%
2–1
10%
1–0
8%
1–1
8%
3–0
8%
3–1
8%
Model vs Market
Polymarket · $64K volume
Edge = our model minus market price. Not financial advice.
Home
Sevilla
PPG
1.80
Avg goals
2.1 / 1.0
Last 5
3W 0D 2L
Away
Atletico Madrid
Head-to-Head
No H2H data found for this league
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is favored to win Sevilla vs Atletico Madrid?
Sevilla is favored with a 68% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.
What is Sevilla's current form?
Sevilla have recorded 3W 0D 2L in their last 5 matches (1.80 points per game). Expected goals per game: 2.4.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely scoreline is 2–0 (10% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 66%.
Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · last 5 matches · limited H2H (0 meetings)
Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.
Your Prediction
Pick a winner
Match Odds
Find prediction markets →
Compare model vs Polymarket / Kalshi
More from La Liga