Win Probability
Key Stats
Score Forecast
Poisson model1.7
AS Monaco xG
Expected goals
2.2
Lens xG
73%
Both Teams to Score
75%
Over 2.5 Goals
Most likely scores
1–1
8%
1–2
8%
2–2
7%
1–3
6%
2–1
6%
0–2
5%
Home
AS Monaco
PPG
1.80
Avg goals
1.4 / 0.9
Last 5
3W 0D 2L
Away
Lens
PPG
2.40
Avg goals
3.6 / 1.5
Last 5
4W 0D 1L
Head-to-Head · Last 6 meetings
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is favored to win As Monaco vs Lens?
Lens is favored with a 47% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.
What is As Monaco's current form?
As Monaco have recorded 3W 0D 2L in their last 5 matches (1.80 points per game). Expected goals per game: 1.7.
What is the H2H record?
In the last 6 Ligue 1 meetings, As Monaco won 3, drew 1, and Lens won 2.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely scoreline is 1–1 (8% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 73%. Over 2.5 goals: 75%.
Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · last 5 matches · H2H 6 meetings · home advantage included
Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.
Your Prediction
Pick a winner
Match Odds
Find prediction markets →
Compare model vs Polymarket / Kalshi
More from Ligue 1