Match Analysis

LensvsToulouse

FRA Ligue 1 · Win Probability, xG & H2H

Win Probability

45%
23%
32%
Lens winDrawToulouse win

Key Stats

1.40Points per game1.80
2.02Avg goals scored1.56
1.37Avg goals conceded1.14
2–1–2Record (W–D–L)2–3–0

Score Forecast

Poisson model

1.8

Lens xG

Expected goals

1.5

Toulouse xG

65%

Both Teams to Score

64%

Over 2.5 Goals

Most likely scores

1–1

10%

2–1

9%

1–0

7%

1–2

7%

2–2

7%

0–1

6%

Home

Lens

Lens

DLWLW

PPG

1.40

Avg goals

2.0 / 1.4

Last 5

2W 1D 2L

Away

Toulouse

Toulouse

DWDWD

PPG

1.80

Avg goals

1.6 / 1.1

Last 5

2W 3D 0L

Head-to-Head

No H2H data found for this league

Frequently Asked Questions

Who is favored to win Lens vs Toulouse?

Lens is favored with a 45% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.

What is Lens's current form?

Lens have recorded 2W 1D 2L in their last 5 matches (1.40 points per game). Expected goals per game: 1.8.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely scoreline is 1–1 (10% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 65%. Over 2.5 goals: 64%.

Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · 8 recent goal samples · form last 5 · limited H2H (0 meetings)

Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.

Match Odds

Lens Win45%
Draw23%
Toulouse Win32%
BTTS65%
Over 2.564%