Win Probability
Key Stats
Score Forecast
Poisson model1.3
Lyon xG
Expected goals
0.3
Le Havre AC xG
19%
Both Teams to Score
22%
Over 2.5 Goals
Most likely scores
1–0
26%
0–0
20%
2–0
17%
1–1
8%
3–0
7%
0–1
6%
Model vs Market
Polymarket · $250K volume
Edge = our model minus market price. Not financial advice.
Home
Lyon
PPG
1.40
Avg goals
1.8 / 1.0
Last 5
2W 1D 2L
Away
Le Havre AC
PPG
1.00
Avg goals
0.4 / 0.9
Last 5
1W 2D 2L
Head-to-Head · Last 6 meetings
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is favored to win Lyon vs Le Havre Ac?
Lyon is favored with a 60% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.
What is Lyon's current form?
Lyon have recorded 2W 1D 2L in their last 5 matches (1.40 points per game). Expected goals per game: 1.3.
What is the H2H record?
In the last 6 Ligue 1 meetings, Lyon won 3, drew 2, and Le Havre Ac won 1.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely scoreline is 1–0 (26% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 19%. Over 2.5 goals: 22%.
Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · last 5 matches · H2H 6 meetings · home advantage included
Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.
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