Match Analysis

Lyon vs Stade Rennais

FRA Ligue 1 · Win Probability, xG & H2H

Win Probability

70%
9%
21%
Lyon winDrawStade Rennais win

Key Stats

1.40Points per game1.40
1.83Avg goals scored1.87
0.95Avg goals conceded2.22
2–1–2Record (W–D–L)2–1–2

Score Forecast

Poisson model

3.4

Lyon xG

Expected goals

1.3

Stade Rennais xG

70%

Both Teams to Score

85%

Over 2.5 Goals

Most likely scores

31

8%

21

7%

41

7%

30

6%

20

5%

32

5%

Home

Lyon

Lyon

LWDWL

PPG

1.40

Avg goals

1.8 / 1.0

Last 5

2W 1D 2L

Away

Stade Rennais

Stade Rennais

DLWLW

PPG

1.40

Avg goals

1.9 / 2.2

Last 5

2W 1D 2L

Head-to-Head · Last 6 meetings

Lyonall timeStade Rennais
3W
3W
3 May 26
Lyon42Stade Rennais
14 Sep 25
Stade Rennais31Lyon
26 Apr 25
Lyon41Stade Rennais
18 Aug 24
Stade Rennais30Lyon
26 Jan 24
Lyon23Stade Rennais
12 Nov 23
Stade Rennais01Lyon

Frequently Asked Questions

Who is favored to win Lyon vs Stade Rennais?

Lyon is favored with a 70% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.

What is Lyon's current form?

Lyon have recorded 2W 1D 2L in their last 5 matches (1.40 points per game). Expected goals per game: 3.4.

What is the H2H record?

In the last 6 Ligue 1 meetings, Lyon won 3, drew 0, and Stade Rennais won 3.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely scoreline is 3–1 (8% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 70%. Over 2.5 goals: 85%.

Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · last 5 matches · H2H 6 meetings · home advantage included

Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.

Your Prediction

Pick a winner

Leaderboard →

Match Odds

Lyon Win70%
Draw9%
Stade Rennais Win21%
BTTS70%
Over 2.585%

Find prediction markets →

Compare model vs Polymarket / Kalshi