Match Analysis

MarseillevsToulouse

FRA Ligue 1 · Win Probability, xG & H2H

Win Probability

48%
21%
31%
Marseille winDrawToulouse win

Key Stats

1.40Points per game1.80
2.62Avg goals scored1.56
1.73Avg goals conceded1.14
2–1–2Record (W–D–L)2–3–0

Score Forecast

Poisson model

2.1

Marseille xG

Expected goals

1.6

Toulouse xG

70%

Both Teams to Score

71%

Over 2.5 Goals

Most likely scores

2–1

9%

1–1

8%

1–2

7%

2–2

7%

3–1

6%

1–0

5%

Home

Marseille

Marseille

DLWLW

PPG

1.40

Avg goals

2.6 / 1.7

Last 5

2W 1D 2L

Away

Toulouse

Toulouse

DWDWD

PPG

1.80

Avg goals

1.6 / 1.1

Last 5

2W 3D 0L

Head-to-Head

No H2H data found for this league

Frequently Asked Questions

Who is favored to win Marseille vs Toulouse?

Marseille is favored with a 48% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.

What is Marseille's current form?

Marseille have recorded 2W 1D 2L in their last 5 matches (1.40 points per game). Expected goals per game: 2.1.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely scoreline is 2–1 (9% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 70%. Over 2.5 goals: 71%.

Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · 8 recent goal samples · form last 5 · limited H2H (0 meetings)

Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.

Match Odds

Marseille Win48%
Draw21%
Toulouse Win31%
BTTS70%
Over 2.571%