Match Analysis

Stade Rennais vs Marseille

FRA Ligue 1 · Win Probability, xG & H2H

Win Probability

10%
4%
86%
Stade Rennais winDrawMarseille win

Key Stats

1.40Points per game2.00
1.87Avg goals scored3.11
2.22Avg goals conceded0.44
2–1–2Record (W–D–L)3–1–1

Score Forecast

Poisson model

0.7

Stade Rennais xG

Expected goals

4

Marseille xG

49%

Both Teams to Score

85%

Over 2.5 Goals

Most likely scores

03

10%

04

10%

05

8%

02

7%

13

7%

14

7%

Home

Stade Rennais

Stade Rennais

DLWLW

PPG

1.40

Avg goals

1.9 / 2.2

Last 5

2W 1D 2L

Away

Marseille

Marseille

WWWLD

PPG

2.00

Avg goals

3.1 / 0.4

Last 5

3W 1D 1L

Head-to-Head · Last 6 meetings

Stade Rennaisall timeMarseille
2W
4W
17 May 26
Marseille31Stade Rennais
15 Aug 25
Stade Rennais10Marseille
17 May 25
Marseille42Stade Rennais
11 Jan 25
Stade Rennais12Marseille
17 Mar 24
Stade Rennais20Marseille
3 Dec 23
Marseille20Stade Rennais

Frequently Asked Questions

Who is favored to win Stade Rennais vs Marseille?

Marseille is favored with a 86% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.

What is Stade Rennais's current form?

Stade Rennais have recorded 2W 1D 2L in their last 5 matches (1.40 points per game). Expected goals per game: 0.7.

What is the H2H record?

In the last 6 Ligue 1 meetings, Stade Rennais won 2, drew 0, and Marseille won 4.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely scoreline is 0–3 (10% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 49%. Over 2.5 goals: 85%.

Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · last 5 matches · H2H 6 meetings · home advantage included

Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.

Your Prediction

Pick a winner

Leaderboard →

Match Odds

Stade Rennais Win10%
Draw4%
Marseille Win86%
BTTS49%
Over 2.585%

Find prediction markets →

Compare model vs Polymarket / Kalshi