Win Probability
Key Stats
Score Forecast
Poisson model1.2
Strasbourg xG
Expected goals
4
Lens xG
69%
Both Teams to Score
89%
Over 2.5 Goals
Most likely scores
1–3
7%
1–4
7%
0–3
6%
0–4
6%
1–5
6%
0–5
5%
Model vs Market
Polymarket · $775K volume
Edge = our model minus market price. Not financial advice.
Home
Strasbourg
PPG
1.40
Avg goals
1.0 / 3.2
Last 5
2W 1D 2L
Away
Lens
PPG
2.40
Avg goals
3.6 / 1.5
Last 5
4W 0D 1L
Head-to-Head · Last 6 meetings
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is favored to win Strasbourg vs Lens?
Lens is favored with a 76% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.
What is Strasbourg's current form?
Strasbourg have recorded 2W 1D 2L in their last 5 matches (1.40 points per game). Expected goals per game: 1.2.
What is the H2H record?
In the last 6 Ligue 1 meetings, Strasbourg won 1, drew 2, and Lens won 3.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely scoreline is 1–3 (7% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 69%. Over 2.5 goals: 89%.
Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · last 5 matches · H2H 6 meetings · home advantage included
Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.
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