Arsenalvs
Manchester City
ENG Premier League · Win Probability, xG & H2H
Win Probability
Key Stats
Score Forecast
Poisson model1.6
Arsenal xG
Expected goals
1.4
Manchester City xG
60%
Both Teams to Score
58%
Over 2.5 Goals
Most likely scores
1–1
11%
2–1
9%
1–0
8%
1–2
8%
0–1
7%
2–0
6%
Home
Arsenal
PPG
2.20
Avg goals
1.6 / 0.6
Last 5
3W 2D 0L
Away
Manchester City
PPG
2.00
Avg goals
2.4 / 1.3
Last 5
3W 1D 1L
Head-to-Head
No H2H data found for this league
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is favored to win Arsenal vs Manchester City?
Arsenal is favored with a 43% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.
What is Arsenal's current form?
Arsenal have recorded 3W 2D 0L in their last 5 matches (2.20 points per game). Expected goals per game: 1.6.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely scoreline is 1–1 (11% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 60%. Over 2.5 goals: 58%.
Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · 8 recent goal samples · form last 5 · limited H2H (0 meetings)
Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.
Match Odds
More from Premier League