Match Analysis

ArsenalvsManchester United

ENG Premier League · Win Probability, xG & H2H

Win Probability

59%
23%
18%
Arsenal winDrawManchester United win

Key Stats

2.20Points per game0.60
1.58Avg goals scored1.04
0.59Avg goals conceded1.65
3–2–0Record (W–D–L)0–3–2

Score Forecast

Poisson model

1.8

Arsenal xG

Expected goals

0.9

Manchester United xG

50%

Both Teams to Score

51%

Over 2.5 Goals

Most likely scores

1–0

12%

1–1

11%

2–0

11%

2–1

10%

0–0

7%

3–0

7%

Home

Arsenal

Arsenal

DWDWW

PPG

2.20

Avg goals

1.6 / 0.6

Last 5

3W 2D 0L

Away

Manchester United

Manchester United

DLDLD

PPG

0.60

Avg goals

1.0 / 1.6

Last 5

0W 3D 2L

Head-to-Head

No H2H data found for this league

Frequently Asked Questions

Who is favored to win Arsenal vs Manchester United?

Arsenal is favored with a 59% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.

What is Arsenal's current form?

Arsenal have recorded 3W 2D 0L in their last 5 matches (2.20 points per game). Expected goals per game: 1.8.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely scoreline is 1–0 (12% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 51%.

Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · 8 recent goal samples · form last 5 · limited H2H (0 meetings)

Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.

Match Odds

Arsenal Win59%
Draw23%
Manchester United Win18%
BTTS50%
Over 2.551%