Aston Villavs
Leeds United
ENG Premier League · Win Probability, xG & H2H
Win Probability
Key Stats
Score Forecast
Poisson model1.3
Aston Villa xG
Expected goals
1.2
Leeds United xG
51%
Both Teams to Score
46%
Over 2.5 Goals
Most likely scores
1–1
13%
1–0
11%
0–1
10%
0–0
8%
1–2
8%
2–1
8%
Model vs Market
Polymarket · $39K volume
Edge = our model minus market price. Not financial advice.
Home
Aston Villa
PPG
2.20
Avg goals
1.3 / 1.3
Last 5
3W 2D 0L
Away
Leeds United
PPG
1.20
Avg goals
1.0 / 0.8
Last 5
1W 3D 1L
Head-to-Head
No H2H data found for this league
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is favored to win Aston Villa vs Leeds United?
Aston Villa is favored with a 38% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.
What is Aston Villa's current form?
Aston Villa have recorded 3W 2D 0L in their last 5 matches (2.20 points per game). Expected goals per game: 1.3.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely scoreline is 1–1 (13% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 46%.
Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · 8 recent goal samples · form last 5 · limited H2H (0 meetings)
Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.
Match Odds
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