Aston Villavs
Manchester City
ENG Premier League · Win Probability, xG & H2H
Win Probability
Key Stats
Score Forecast
Poisson model1.5
Aston Villa xG
Expected goals
1.8
Manchester City xG
65%
Both Teams to Score
64%
Over 2.5 Goals
Most likely scores
1–1
10%
1–2
9%
0–1
7%
2–1
7%
2–2
7%
0–2
6%
Home
Aston Villa
PPG
2.60
Avg goals
1.3 / 1.3
Last 5
4W 1D 0L
Away
Manchester City
PPG
1.40
Avg goals
2.5 / 1.3
Last 5
2W 1D 2L
Head-to-Head
No H2H data found for this league
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is favored to win Aston Villa vs Manchester City?
Manchester City is favored with a 45% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.
What is Aston Villa's current form?
Aston Villa have recorded 4W 1D 0L in their last 5 matches (2.60 points per game). Expected goals per game: 1.5.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely scoreline is 1–1 (10% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 65%. Over 2.5 goals: 64%.
Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · 8 recent goal samples · form last 5 · limited H2H (0 meetings)
Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.
Match Odds
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