Aston Villa vs Manchester City
ENG Premier League · Win Probability, xG & H2H
Win Probability
Key Stats
Score Forecast
Poisson model0.8
Aston Villa xG
Expected goals
4
Manchester City xG
54%
Both Teams to Score
86%
Over 2.5 Goals
Most likely scores
0–3
9%
0–4
9%
0–2
7%
0–5
7%
1–3
7%
1–4
7%
Home
Aston Villa
PPG
1.80
Avg goals
1.0 / 3.0
Last 5
3W 0D 2L
Away
Manchester City
PPG
1.40
Avg goals
2.8 / 1.1
Last 5
2W 1D 2L
Head-to-Head · Last 6 meetings
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is favored to win Aston Villa vs Manchester City?
Manchester City is favored with a 76% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.
What is Aston Villa's current form?
Aston Villa have recorded 3W 0D 2L in their last 5 matches (1.80 points per game). Expected goals per game: 0.8.
What is the H2H record?
In the last 6 Premier League meetings, Aston Villa won 4, drew 0, and Manchester City won 2.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely scoreline is 0–3 (9% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 86%.
Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · last 5 matches · H2H 6 meetings · home advantage included
Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.
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