Match Analysis

Aston VillavsManchester City

ENG Premier League · Win Probability, xG & H2H

Win Probability

32%
23%
45%
Aston Villa winDrawManchester City win

Key Stats

2.60Points per game1.40
1.34Avg goals scored2.45
1.32Avg goals conceded1.26
4–1–0Record (W–D–L)2–1–2

Score Forecast

Poisson model

1.5

Aston Villa xG

Expected goals

1.8

Manchester City xG

65%

Both Teams to Score

64%

Over 2.5 Goals

Most likely scores

1–1

10%

1–2

9%

0–1

7%

2–1

7%

2–2

7%

0–2

6%

Home

Aston Villa

Aston Villa

DWWWW

PPG

2.60

Avg goals

1.3 / 1.3

Last 5

4W 1D 0L

Away

Manchester City

Manchester City

DLWWL

PPG

1.40

Avg goals

2.5 / 1.3

Last 5

2W 1D 2L

Head-to-Head

No H2H data found for this league

Frequently Asked Questions

Who is favored to win Aston Villa vs Manchester City?

Manchester City is favored with a 45% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.

What is Aston Villa's current form?

Aston Villa have recorded 4W 1D 0L in their last 5 matches (2.60 points per game). Expected goals per game: 1.5.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely scoreline is 1–1 (10% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 65%. Over 2.5 goals: 64%.

Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · 8 recent goal samples · form last 5 · limited H2H (0 meetings)

Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.

Match Odds

Aston Villa Win32%
Draw23%
Manchester City Win45%
BTTS65%
Over 2.564%