Match Analysis

ChelseavsAston Villa

ENG Premier League · Win Probability, xG & H2H

Win Probability

47%
22%
31%
Chelsea winDrawAston Villa win

Key Stats

1.40Points per game2.60
2.00Avg goals scored1.34
1.67Avg goals conceded1.32
2–1–2Record (W–D–L)4–1–0

Score Forecast

Poisson model

1.9

Chelsea xG

Expected goals

1.5

Aston Villa xG

66%

Both Teams to Score

66%

Over 2.5 Goals

Most likely scores

1–1

10%

2–1

9%

1–2

7%

2–2

7%

1–0

6%

2–0

6%

Home

Chelsea

Chelsea

DLWWL

PPG

1.40

Avg goals

2.0 / 1.7

Last 5

2W 1D 2L

Away

Aston Villa

Aston Villa

DWWWW

PPG

2.60

Avg goals

1.3 / 1.3

Last 5

4W 1D 0L

Head-to-Head

No H2H data found for this league

Frequently Asked Questions

Who is favored to win Chelsea vs Aston Villa?

Chelsea is favored with a 47% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.

What is Chelsea's current form?

Chelsea have recorded 2W 1D 2L in their last 5 matches (1.40 points per game). Expected goals per game: 1.9.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely scoreline is 1–1 (10% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 66%. Over 2.5 goals: 66%.

Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · 8 recent goal samples · form last 5 · limited H2H (0 meetings)

Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.

Match Odds

Chelsea Win47%
Draw22%
Aston Villa Win31%
BTTS66%
Over 2.566%