Match Analysis

Chelsea vs Brighton Hove Albion

ENG Premier League · Win Probability, xG & H2H

Win Probability

11%
12%
77%
Chelsea winDrawBrighton & Hove Albion win

Key Stats

1.80Points per game1.40
2.27Avg goals scored2.68
1.88Avg goals conceded0.75
3–0–2Record (W–D–L)2–1–2

Score Forecast

Poisson model

1.4

Chelsea xG

Expected goals

3.5

Brighton & Hove Albion xG

73%

Both Teams to Score

87%

Over 2.5 Goals

Most likely scores

13

7%

14

7%

12

6%

02

5%

03

5%

04

5%

Model vs Market

Polymarket · $33K volume

LIVE ODDS
Outcome
Our Model
Market
Edge
Chelsea
11%
53%
-42%
Draw
12%
Brighton & Hove Albion
77%
47%
+30%
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Edge = our model minus market price. Not financial advice.

Home

Chelsea

Chelsea

WWLWL

PPG

1.80

Avg goals

2.3 / 1.9

Last 5

3W 0D 2L

Away

Brighton & Hove Albion

Brighton & Hove Albion

WWDLL

PPG

1.40

Avg goals

2.7 / 0.8

Last 5

2W 1D 2L

Head-to-Head

No H2H data found for this league

Frequently Asked Questions

Who is favored to win Chelsea vs Brighton Hove Albion?

Brighton & Hove Albion is favored with a 77% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.

What is Chelsea's current form?

Chelsea have recorded 3W 0D 2L in their last 5 matches (1.80 points per game). Expected goals per game: 1.4.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely scoreline is 1–3 (7% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 73%. Over 2.5 goals: 87%.

Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · last 5 matches · limited H2H (0 meetings)

Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.

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Match Odds

Chelsea Win11%
Draw12%
Brighton & Hove Albion Win77%
BTTS73%
Over 2.587%

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