Win Probability
Key Stats
Score Forecast
Poisson model1.5
Chelsea xG
Expected goals
1.3
Leeds United xG
57%
Both Teams to Score
53%
Over 2.5 Goals
Most likely scores
1–1
12%
1–0
9%
2–1
9%
0–1
8%
1–2
8%
2–0
7%
Home
Chelsea
PPG
1.60
Avg goals
2.0 / 1.7
Last 5
2W 2D 1L
Away
Leeds United
PPG
1.20
Avg goals
1.0 / 0.8
Last 5
1W 3D 1L
Head-to-Head
No H2H data found for this league
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is favored to win Chelsea vs Leeds United?
Chelsea is favored with a 42% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.
What is Chelsea's current form?
Chelsea have recorded 2W 2D 1L in their last 5 matches (1.60 points per game). Expected goals per game: 1.5.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely scoreline is 1–1 (12% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%.
Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · 8 recent goal samples · form last 5 · limited H2H (0 meetings)
Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.
Match Odds
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