Match Analysis

Everton vs Chelsea

ENG Premier League · Win Probability, xG & H2H

Win Probability

54%
18%
28%
Everton winDrawChelsea win

Key Stats

1.40Points per game1.80
1.73Avg goals scored2.27
0.94Avg goals conceded1.88
2–1–2Record (W–D–L)3–0–2

Score Forecast

Poisson model

2.5

Everton xG

Expected goals

1.4

Chelsea xG

69%

Both Teams to Score

75%

Over 2.5 Goals

Most likely scores

21

9%

11

7%

31

7%

20

6%

22

6%

10

5%

Home

Everton

Everton

WWLLD

PPG

1.40

Avg goals

1.7 / 0.9

Last 5

2W 1D 2L

Away

Chelsea

Chelsea

WWLWL

PPG

1.80

Avg goals

2.3 / 1.9

Last 5

3W 0D 2L

Head-to-Head · Last 6 meetings

Evertonall timeChelsea
2W
1D
3W
21 Mar 26
Everton30Chelsea
13 Dec 25
Chelsea20Everton
26 Apr 25
Chelsea10Everton
22 Dec 24
Everton00Chelsea
15 Apr 24
Chelsea60Everton
10 Dec 23
Everton20Chelsea

Frequently Asked Questions

Who is favored to win Everton vs Chelsea?

Everton is favored with a 54% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.

What is Everton's current form?

Everton have recorded 2W 1D 2L in their last 5 matches (1.40 points per game). Expected goals per game: 2.5.

What is the H2H record?

In the last 6 Premier League meetings, Everton won 2, drew 1, and Chelsea won 3.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely scoreline is 2–1 (9% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 69%. Over 2.5 goals: 75%.

Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · last 5 matches · H2H 6 meetings · home advantage included

Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.

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Match Odds

Everton Win54%
Draw18%
Chelsea Win28%
BTTS69%
Over 2.575%

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