Win Probability
Key Stats
Score Forecast
Poisson model2.5
Everton xG
Expected goals
1.4
Chelsea xG
69%
Both Teams to Score
75%
Over 2.5 Goals
Most likely scores
2–1
9%
1–1
7%
3–1
7%
2–0
6%
2–2
6%
1–0
5%
Home
Everton
PPG
1.40
Avg goals
1.7 / 0.9
Last 5
2W 1D 2L
Away
Chelsea
PPG
1.80
Avg goals
2.3 / 1.9
Last 5
3W 0D 2L
Head-to-Head · Last 6 meetings
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is favored to win Everton vs Chelsea?
Everton is favored with a 54% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.
What is Everton's current form?
Everton have recorded 2W 1D 2L in their last 5 matches (1.40 points per game). Expected goals per game: 2.5.
What is the H2H record?
In the last 6 Premier League meetings, Everton won 2, drew 1, and Chelsea won 3.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely scoreline is 2–1 (9% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 69%. Over 2.5 goals: 75%.
Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · last 5 matches · H2H 6 meetings · home advantage included
Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.
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