Match Analysis

Leeds United vs Brentford

ENG Premier League · Win Probability, xG & H2H

Win Probability

17%
49%
34%
Leeds United winDrawBrentford win

Key Stats

2.00Points per game1.60
1.05Avg goals scored2.34
0.57Avg goals conceded0.65
3–1–1Record (W–D–L)2–2–1

Score Forecast

Poisson model

0.5

Leeds United xG

Expected goals

0.9

Brentford xG

23%

Both Teams to Score

17%

Over 2.5 Goals

Most likely scores

00

25%

01

22%

10

12%

11

11%

02

10%

12

5%

Model vs Market

Polymarket · $208K volume

LIVE ODDS
Outcome
Our Model
Market
Edge
Leeds United
17%
37%
-20%
Draw
49%
Brentford
34%
63%
-29%
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Edge = our model minus market price. Not financial advice.

Home

Leeds United

Leeds United

WWLWD

PPG

2.00

Avg goals

1.0 / 0.6

Last 5

3W 1D 1L

Away

Brentford

Brentford

WWDDL

PPG

1.60

Avg goals

2.3 / 0.6

Last 5

2W 2D 1L

Head-to-Head · Last 2 meetings

Leeds Unitedall timeBrentford
2D
21 Mar 26
Leeds United00Brentford
14 Dec 25
Brentford11Leeds United

Frequently Asked Questions

Who is favored to win Leeds United vs Brentford?

Brentford is favored with a 34% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.

What is Leeds United's current form?

Leeds United have recorded 3W 1D 1L in their last 5 matches (2.00 points per game). Expected goals per game: 0.5.

What is the H2H record?

In the last 2 Premier League meetings, Leeds United won 0, drew 2, and Brentford won 0.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely scoreline is 0–0 (25% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 23%. Over 2.5 goals: 17%.

Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · last 5 matches · limited H2H (2 meetings)

Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.

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Match Odds

Leeds United Win17%
Draw49%
Brentford Win34%
BTTS23%
Over 2.517%

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