Liverpool vs Manchester City
ENG Premier League · Win Probability, xG & H2H
Win Probability
Key Stats
Score Forecast
Poisson model1.5
Liverpool xG
Expected goals
2.9
Manchester City xG
73%
Both Teams to Score
81%
Over 2.5 Goals
Most likely scores
1–2
8%
1–3
7%
2–2
6%
2–3
6%
0–2
5%
0–3
5%
Home
Liverpool
PPG
0.60
Avg goals
1.8 / 2.1
Last 5
0W 3D 2L
Away
Manchester City
PPG
1.40
Avg goals
2.0 / 1.1
Last 5
2W 1D 2L
Head-to-Head · Last 6 meetings
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is favored to win Liverpool vs Manchester City?
Manchester City is favored with a 58% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.
What is Liverpool's current form?
Liverpool have recorded 0W 3D 2L in their last 5 matches (0.60 points per game). Expected goals per game: 1.5.
What is the H2H record?
In the last 6 Premier League meetings, Liverpool won 2, drew 2, and Manchester City won 2.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely scoreline is 1–2 (8% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 73%. Over 2.5 goals: 81%.
Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · last 5 matches · H2H 6 meetings · home advantage included
Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.
Your Prediction
Pick a winner
Match Odds
Find prediction markets →
Compare model vs Polymarket / Kalshi
More from Premier League