Match Analysis

Liverpool vs Nottingham Forest

ENG Premier League · Win Probability, xG & H2H

Win Probability

53%
22%
25%
Liverpool winDrawNottingham Forest win

Key Stats

0.60Points per game0.40
1.78Avg goals scored0.73
2.09Avg goals conceded1.23
0–3–2Record (W–D–L)0–2–3

Score Forecast

Poisson model

1.7

Liverpool xG

Expected goals

1

Nottingham Forest xG

52%

Both Teams to Score

51%

Over 2.5 Goals

Most likely scores

10

11%

11

11%

20

10%

21

10%

00

7%

01

7%

Model vs Market

Polymarket · $49K volume

LIVE ODDS
Outcome
Our Model
Market
Edge
Liverpool
53%
64%
-11%
Draw
22%
Nottingham Forest
25%
36%
-11%
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Edge = our model minus market price. Not financial advice.

Home

Liverpool

Liverpool

DDLDL

PPG

0.60

Avg goals

1.8 / 2.1

Last 5

0W 3D 2L

Away

Nottingham Forest

Nottingham Forest

LLDLD

PPG

0.40

Avg goals

0.7 / 1.2

Last 5

0W 2D 3L

Head-to-Head · Last 6 meetings

Liverpoolall timeNottingham Forest
3W
1D
2W
22 Feb 26
Nottingham Forest01Liverpool
22 Nov 25
Liverpool03Nottingham Forest
14 Jan 25
Nottingham Forest11Liverpool
14 Sep 24
Liverpool01Nottingham Forest
2 Mar 24
Nottingham Forest01Liverpool
29 Oct 23
Liverpool30Nottingham Forest

Frequently Asked Questions

Who is favored to win Liverpool vs Nottingham Forest?

Liverpool is favored with a 53% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.

What is Liverpool's current form?

Liverpool have recorded 0W 3D 2L in their last 5 matches (0.60 points per game). Expected goals per game: 1.7.

What is the H2H record?

In the last 6 Premier League meetings, Liverpool won 3, drew 1, and Nottingham Forest won 2.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely scoreline is 1–0 (11% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 51%.

Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · last 5 matches · H2H 6 meetings · home advantage included

Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.

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Match Odds

Liverpool Win53%
Draw22%
Nottingham Forest Win25%
BTTS52%
Over 2.551%

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