Liverpool vs Nottingham Forest
ENG Premier League · Win Probability, xG & H2H
Win Probability
Key Stats
Score Forecast
Poisson model1.7
Liverpool xG
Expected goals
1
Nottingham Forest xG
52%
Both Teams to Score
51%
Over 2.5 Goals
Most likely scores
1–0
11%
1–1
11%
2–0
10%
2–1
10%
0–0
7%
0–1
7%
Model vs Market
Polymarket · $49K volume
Edge = our model minus market price. Not financial advice.
Home
Liverpool
PPG
0.60
Avg goals
1.8 / 2.1
Last 5
0W 3D 2L
Away
Nottingham Forest
PPG
0.40
Avg goals
0.7 / 1.2
Last 5
0W 2D 3L
Head-to-Head · Last 6 meetings
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is favored to win Liverpool vs Nottingham Forest?
Liverpool is favored with a 53% win probability based on recent form (PPG) and H2H record.
What is Liverpool's current form?
Liverpool have recorded 0W 3D 2L in their last 5 matches (0.60 points per game). Expected goals per game: 1.7.
What is the H2H record?
In the last 6 Premier League meetings, Liverpool won 3, drew 1, and Nottingham Forest won 2.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely scoreline is 1–0 (11% probability) according to PaceScore's Poisson model. Both teams to score probability: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 51%.
Poisson model · attack & defense ratings · last 5 matches · H2H 6 meetings · home advantage included
Statistical model for research purposes only. Not betting advice. PaceScore does not facilitate trading or take positions.
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